In a text to her supporters, presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton announced Sen. Timothy M. Kaine (Va.) will be her choice for vice president. Kaine, 58, is a former Virginia governor, Richmond mayor and Democratic National Committee chairman.

[ Sen. Timothy M. Kaine of Virginia chosen as Hillary Clinton’s VP]

In the end, Clinton’s shortlist came down to two: Kaine and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. With these options, Clinton signaled she was more concerned with adding an establishment, swing-state politician than with further diversifying the ticket.

 

Timothy Kaine

Senator from Virginia

Tom Vilsack

Agriculture secretary from Iowa

Gender Male Male
Establishment
Historic
Swing state
Northeast region

Others who reportedly made it late into the selection process included Labor Secretary Thomas E. Perez and Housing Secretary Julián Castro, who are both Hispanic, and progressive star Elizabeth Warren, who could have helped Clinton shore up any hesitation on her left flank.

Below is our best estimation of the pool of candidates we thought were most likely to complete the Democratic ticket.

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Clinton’s pick could fire up wary liberal voters.

Clinton withstood a tougher-than-expected primary challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. A would-be vice president from the more liberal wing of the party could do wonders to bring along that bloc of voters that isn’t quite ready for Clinton. Someone with a populist message could also serve Clinton well in the attack-dog role against Trump.

12 Insiders

Clinton might pick someone in line with the status quo.

Evan Bayh

Former senator from Indiana

Joe Biden

Vice president from Delaware

Michael Bloomberg

Former New York City mayor

Andrew Cuomo

New York governor

Kirsten Gillibrand

Senator from New York

Timothy Kaine

Senator from Virginia

Amy Klobuchar

Senator from Minnesota

Terry McAuliffe

Virginia governor

Janet Napolitano

Former homeland security secretary

Jeanne Shaheen

Senator from New Hampshire

Tom Vilsack

Agriculture secretary from Iowa

Mark Warner

Senator from Virginia

15 Liberals/Minorities

A substantial part of the Democratic Party is itching for her to choose someone more liberal or diverse than the candidate herself.

Xavier Becerra

Congressman from California

Cory Booker

Senator from New Jersey

Sherrod Brown

Senator from Ohio

Joaquin Castro

Congressman from Texas

Julian Castro

Housing secretary from Texas

Bill De Blasio

New York City mayor

Anthony Foxx

Transportation secretary from North Carolina

Al Franken

Senator from Minnesota

Kamala Harris

California attorney general

Martin O’Malley

Former Maryland governor

Deval Patrick

Former Massachusetts governor

Thomas Perez

Labor secretary from Maryland

Ken Salazar

Former interior secretary from Colorado

Bernie Sanders

Senator from Vermont

Elizabeth Warren

Senator from Massachusetts

Clinton would probably prefer to choose someone not named Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Another liberal who might appease the Sanders crowd: Largely unknown Labor Secretary Thomas Perez.

Clinton’s pick could emphasize her history-making candidacy.

Clinton, the first woman to top a major-party ticket, could play up her barrier-breaking candidacy by choosing another woman, or a minority, to complete the Democratic ticket.

13 Historic firsts

Choosing a woman could also draw a distinct contrast with Trump, whose past is full of dicey comments about women. A Hispanic would fit that bill pretty easily, as well.

Xavier Becerra

Congressman from California

Cory Booker

Senator from New Jersey

Joaquin Castro

Congressman from Texas

Julian Castro

Housing secretary from Texas

Anthony Foxx

Transportation secretary from North Carolina

Kirsten Gillibrand

Senator from New York

Kamala Harris

California attorney general

Amy Klobuchar

Senator from Minnesota

Janet Napolitano

Former homeland security secretary

Deval Patrick

Former Massachusetts governor

Thomas Perez

Labor secretary from Maryland

Jeanne Shaheen

Senator from New Hampshire

Elizabeth Warren

Senator from Massachusetts

14 Others

Demographics might not matter so much to Clinton if she finds someone who counters Trump well.

Evan Bayh

Former senator from Indiana

Joe Biden

Vice president from Delaware

Michael Bloomberg

Former New York City mayor

Sherrod Brown

Senator from Ohio

Andrew Cuomo

New York governor

Bill De Blasio

New York City mayor

Al Franken

Senator from Minnesota

Timothy Kaine

Senator from Virginia

Terry McAuliffe

Virginia governor

Martin O’Malley

Former Maryland governor

Ken Salazar

Former interior secretary from Colorado

Bernie Sanders

Senator from Vermont

Tom Vilsack

Agriculture secretary from Iowa

Mark Warner

Senator from Virginia

The obvious choice, and the one getting the most buzz, is Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro. In terms of Hispanic appeal, Rep. Xavier Becerra would also make sense, but his home state of California is pretty much in the bag for Clinton already. Clinton’s campaign manager has said that a woman will be on their shortlist. Adding to the intrigue: The Boston Globe reported that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid has been exploring options should a Senate vacancy arise in Massachusetts. Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Jeanne Shaheen could be other female options.

Clinton’s pick could also be influenced by geographic concerns.

Trump claims he can turn traditionally blue Midwestern states red; a VP from that region could help Clinton shore up support there. It’s unclear whether a vice presidential pick from a swing state would help deliver that state’s electoral votes in November, but the possibility of that happening could factor into the decision.

10 Northeasterners

Joe Biden

Vice president from Delaware

Michael Bloomberg

Former New York City mayor

Cory Booker

Senator from New Jersey

Andrew Cuomo

New York governor

Bill De Blasio

New York City mayor

Kirsten Gillibrand

Senator from New York

Deval Patrick

Former Massachusetts governor

Bernie Sanders

Senator from Vermont

Jeanne Shaheen

Senator from New Hampshire

Elizabeth Warren

Senator from Massachusetts

8 Southerners

Joaquin Castro

Congressman from Texas

Julian Castro

Housing secretary from Texas

Anthony Foxx

Transportation secretary from North Carolina

Timothy Kaine

Senator from Virginia

Terry McAuliffe

Virginia governor

Martin O’Malley

Former Maryland governor

Thomas Perez

Labor secretary from Maryland

Mark Warner

Senator from Virginia

5 Midwesterners

Evan Bayh

Former senator from Indiana

Sherrod Brown

Senator from Ohio

Al Franken

Senator from Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar

Senator from Minnesota

Tom Vilsack

Agriculture secretary from Iowa

4 Westerners

Xavier Becerra

Congressman from California

Kamala Harris

California attorney general

Janet Napolitano

Former homeland security secretary

Ken Salazar

Former interior secretary from Colorado

Clinton would appear unlikely to pick a fellow New Yorker as her VP pick, as the Constitution says two candidates cannot win the electoral votes from a state they both reside in. However, one of the candidates could establish residency in another state, which has happened before; then-Texas resident Dick Cheney did so when he was then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush’s VP pick in 2000.

For swing-state appeal, Clinton could choose either of the senators from Virginia, Timothy M. Kaine or Mark R. Warner, though she will probably stay away from Gov. Terry McAuliffe. Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio would be another obvious swing-state choice with populist appeal.

The Fix says ...

Here is the most recent ranking of Clinton’s likely VP choices, as seen by Fix boss Chris Cillizza:

#1

Timothy Kaine

Senator from Virginia

“Combine Clinton’s natural caution with the state of the 2016 race and all signs point to her settling on a vice presidential pick who a) cannot possibly do any harm and b) is regarded as a governance pick — a person who has the résumé and knowledge to help Clinton run the decidedly complex federal bureaucracy. That’s Kaine.”

#2

Julian Castro

Housing secretary from Texas

“Picking Castro would do two other things for Clinton: bridge the generational divide in the party (Castro is 41) and perhaps cement Hispanic voters as a reliable Democratic voting bloc for decades to come.”

#3

Elizabeth Warren

Senator from Massachusetts

“The two women don’t have the best relationship — Warren was the last female Democratic senator to endorse Clinton, and she did it after the primaries were officially over — and Warren’s hero status among liberals isn’t really what Clinton needs right now. (Clinton’s poll numbers among liberals have been quite strong.) But, as of today, Warren is one of three people we know that Clinton’s VP search team is vetting.”

#4

Sherrod Brown

Senator from Ohio

“Brown is a stylistic contrast to Clinton — a sort of gruff-voiced everyman and a populist. That could serve as a nice complement to Clinton and round out the ticket.”

#5

Amy Klobuchar

Senator from Minnesota

“She has been an active surrogate for Clinton, has clear ambition beyond the Senate and hails from the Midwest, which will be the central battleground of this election.”

Read the full June 26 post here.

First published June 8, 2016. The graphic has been updated to reflect constitutional rules on presidential tickets with candidates from the same state. Sources: Photos from Associated Press, Washington Post file photos, Getty Images, Bloomberg News, Reuters and Agence France-Presse via Getty Images.

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